University of Cincinnati Medical Center, LLC (UC Health Specialty Pharmacy), OH, USA
Research
The Effect of Weather Conditions on Demand Forecasting of Migraine Medications in a Specialty Pharmacy Applying ARIMA and VARMA Models
Author(s): Lucas Scharf da Costa*, Alex C. Lin, Justin Campbell, Mina K. Gabriel and Andrew M. Ferguson
Background: Demand forecasting in a specialty pharmacy is a challenge that requires a data-driven decision-making process to improve its procedures. Patients with migraine are sensitive to weather conditions, but it is still unclear how it can affect the demand for migraine medications in pharmacies. The objective of the study is to apply ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) and VARMA (Vector Autoregressive Moving Average) analytical methods to the demand forecasting of four most-prescribed migraine medications in a specialty pharmacy and to assess the impact of weather conditions in the demand forecasting of those medications.
Methods and Findings: This study was a collaboration between the University Of Cincinnati Medical Center, LLC (UC Health Specialty Pharmacy) and the James L. Winkle College of Pharmacy, both located in Cincinnati, Ohio. The pharmacy provided .. View More»
