Department of Community Medicine, Government Medical College, Ongole, India
Research
Forecasting Dengue Fever Incidence Using ARIMA Analysis
Author(s): M Siva Durga Prasad Nayak* and KA Narayan
Background: Dengue is one of the most serious and fast emerging tropical diseases. In India, over the past decade, Dengue fever has increased in frequency and geographical extent. Detailed information about when and where DF/DHF outbreaks occurred in the past can be used for epidemiological modeling to predict future trends and impending outbreaks. Based on this background, an attempt was made to convert the available monthly data of dengue fever incidence in the Kerala state into seasonal ARIMA model to forecast disease burden.
Methods: The current study was retrospective analytical study using secondary data from department of Director of Public Health of Kerala state, India. The monthly reports of integrated disease surveillance project (IDSP) for a period of thirteen years from 2006 to 2018 were downloaded and data of dengue fever cases .. View More»
